There’s an easy answer to bring peace to Ukraine. The Russians can pack up all their shit and just go home.
How do you expect that to happen?
- A palace coup by the oligarchs
- A civil war in Russia
- China and India stop trading with Russia
- Russia runs out of tanks
- Russia runs out of money
Take your pick.
A palace coup by the oligarchs
“The oligarchs” are just the ultra-rich owners of companies. Like US billionaires or the South Korean Chaebol owners. This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF. If they changed their minds Putin would just appear to have decided this himself.
So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.
A civil war in Russia
Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?
China and India stop trading with Russia
And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.
Russia runs out of tanks
Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war. The opposite is more likely: the US and Western Europe have been sending old stocks but they are failing to replace them fast enough, particularly artillery.
Russia runs out of money
But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.
These aren’t realistic outcomes. And the problem with rose-tinted glasses here is that it means a lot of Ukrainians die for no reason.
This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF.
They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin. They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That’s why he is so paranoid.
So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.
Now I know you’re trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia’s recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.
Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?
A civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid. Don’t get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc. General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army. The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either. Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment? The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.
And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.
Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions? Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?
Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war.
It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine. And many of the cold storage sites are now empty. It is only a matter of time before Russia runs out of tanks. It is telling that they aren’t delivering the already ordered tanks abroad and are instead importing older tanks.
But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.
Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.
Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.
Inflation is really high. Any country that has a higher inflation right now is in the middle of a financial meltdown.
Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.
Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.
These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.
They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin.
No, they’re all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing. If the major owners of companies all want a policy change in a capitalist system, they get it. Putin is their political operative and has power with their consent.
They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That’s why he is so paranoid.
When Russia loses? They are winning, their economy is booming, and the country is stable. You’ve just listed a series of implausible outcomes. Is there a probable one you haven’t told me?
Now I know you’re trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia’s recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.
Happy to discuss them. How is the ruble doing? Total imports and exports? Employment? Shortages? Inflation?
civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid
The RF pays its soldiers.
Don’t get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc.
This also happens in the US but their only civil war was over slavery. What evidence do you have that this is widespread and leading to organized treason?
General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army.
Have you ever heard a person that was in the US army talk about any of those things? Why would this mean one thing in the RF and another in the US?
The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either
Hidden? So you know the real number?
Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment?
This does not make it unsustainable. This was also the logic and methodology used by the US when it was officially in hot wars.
The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.
You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, “the people”? How?
Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions?
Because those are small Chinese banks that don’t feel confident they’ve worked around sanctions. Small fry. I assume you just read a headline from around two weeks ago?
Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?
Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. The necessity of things like this is why other countries are desperate to join alternatives to SWIFT.
It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine.
Oh? How many is it producing vs losing?
Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.
Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you?
Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.
It is spending its reserves, yes. But this means less for a country with a strong industrial base and sufficient bilateral trade.
Inflation is really high.
Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?
Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.
The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion.
Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.
Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising?
These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.
To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven’t even mentioned.
I listened to an interview recently, I believe on BBC, where the interviewee said the biggest issue with peace talks is that the international community isn’t able to trust Putin to keep his word on whatever is agreed upon. I hadn’t considered that, but it makes a lot of sense and I’m not sure how that could change
The same argument can be used in favor of Russia. NATO has invaded plenty of countries under false pretenses in the past. Both Russia and NATO do not have a reputation for keeping their promises.
“plenty”
Unironically yes, NATO members have invaded a lot of places, often in coalition with other member states.
That’s like saying Canada is responsible for something Mexico did because they’re both on the same continent…
NATO is purely a defense agreement.
The international community being G7 countries accounting for 15% of world population. Nobody gives a fuck what the west thinks at this point.
The primary problem is that for negotiations to even begin is that Ukraine itself has a law that forbids anybody to negotiate with Putin before Ukraine has regained all it’s lands, even Zelensky himself would technically speaking commit treason by agreeing to talk on peace terms before this law is repealed. That is unless Scholz speaks of the “Zelensky peace plan” that is basically Russia gives up all the pre 2014 territories and then Kiev will negotiate with Moscow. Which is equally nonsensical and impossible situation.
I don’t know if what if any Scholz is trying to do here. All talk most likely for domestic audience, because the opposition won big in regional elections in Germany lately on “no more money to Ukraine” platform.
I am the most inexpert of laypeople on this subject, but I’ve wondered whether the incursion into Russian territory has been to give Ukraine a better position to negotiate on a mutual return of territory in talks, if they come about.
We have to speculate about it, but it is a reckless maneuver that has led to the nee, rapid losses on the main front. I would expect that it is reckless ideologues trying to push it.
Ukraine has seen some high-profile resignations just before and during this, so it is possible that the early resignations was people opposed to invading a sliver of Kursk and the later ones might be people that wanted to invade.
But this is just guessing.
Step up military aid to Ukraine significantly. That is the only way to peace. Giving in to russian demands would only lead to a short cease fire, before they launch their next attack.
That so many Germans have bought into russian propaganda is a major hurdle.
peace is when more war harder
the more war harder you war, the less putin you propaganda
real easy to say for someone not in a warzone
Given the request for more military aid comes from people in ukraine.
Seems. Your the one arguing against them from a position of safty.
Ask the Ukrainians what they think. It’ll be amusing to see how they flounce you.
Giving in to tyranny is voluntary slavery.
I was wondering why this had so many downvotes until I noticed the instance this is on.
Why do you think there would be a “next attack” and where?
It’s incredibly funny that the level from which we’d be ‘stepping up’ is holding a 70 nation conference for peace that the country winning the war was not invited to
Considering their idea of peace is the total capitulation of their opponent and systematic erasure of its population, I dont see what tangible benefit inviting them would be.
lmao even Scholz is starting to realize Ukraine lost the war
