TLDR: Tesla will have as many robotaxis as Waymo in the year 2111, if the current growth rate holds (and if Waymo doesn’t add a single additional vehicle). So… I’m guessing the Tesla stock price will skyrocket.
Here’s the problem for Tesla: their “full self driving” doesn’t fucking work. I had it for years (first run model 3) and it was always 1 step forward, 1 back. Make one thing better, another gets worse. This was still the case when I dumped my 3 after The Salute. I never got what I paid for.
They’re clearly still in the same predicament, so instead they have “supervisors” remote-controlling the cars. Musk simply refuses to acknowledge this fact and keeps promising it indefinitely. And people keep believing it.
And people keep believing it.
At this point I’m not sure anyone believes it. I think everyone is just hoping there will still be enough suckers down the road to make some money before it collapses.
look, i don’t like tesla either, but assuming a linear progression here is probably really naive and wrong. they know how to scale up, once their tech is on point, look at the rate falcon 9s deliver starlink sats in LEO.
Yep it’s like saying when Tesla had 0 on the road it would take an infinite amount of time to catch up.
The thing is that waymo did this without decades of training data arriving per day. Tesla is worryingly far behind on the actual self-driving tech from an investor’s perspective.
If anyone is still invested in Tesla at this point, they deserve to lose their shi®t.
Now if they’re newly invested, that may be another story entirely. Assuming the battery & solar biz doesn’t get spun off.
Do they know how to scale up an autonomous taxi service? I mean, maybe? There’s no sign of that anywhere in the Tesla data, though.
The original target was Robotaxis to cover “half the US population by the end of 2025,” so we’re nowhere close to on-target, and those goals weren’t given with any asterix on the earnings call when they were declared. I don’t see any reason to move the goalpost, it’s just a miss taken to a funny conclusion.
Musk’s deadlines always have been pure fantasy. But i’m seeing real life hands on reviews of autonomous driving in various places, even Amsterdam with a mayhem of canals and cyclists, it’s not entirely there but damn impressive.
The rollout of the cars themselves will be a non issue, they control the factories to pump out the vehicles as they need it, unlike waymo’s retrofit way of doing things.
I can’t predict the future, had a company car tesla model 3 from 2019 with “full potential for self driving” and after 4 years when the leasing contract ran out, it was still barely on the level of a teenager on their 5th driving lesson. They might very well never reach the point where it’s good enough for the real world and stay on really predictable paths.
it’s not entirely there but damn impressive
Maybe, if you believe they’re actually autonomous and not just being secretly driven remotely.
heh sorry i left my tin foil hat at home when writing this :P
And with any number of them falling out of the sky in a few more years, maybe those two numbers will meet in short time.
Given the comparative rate of growth, they’ll never catch up.
