Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to "immediately" order a ceasefire in Ukraine and start negotiations if Kyiv began withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected what he called an ultimatum by Putin to surrender more territory.
Everybody knows what game theory is, however the discussion is about military capability and strategy which is best left to people who have experience in these things. Also, game theory makes plenty of assumptions which make it of questionable use in the real world. For example, game theory assumes that all actors are rational, and it’s pretty clear that the west has not been making rational decisions throughout this war.
It includes both perceived military capacity and geopolitical strategy. Game theory helps with the latter.
Here’s more info on theories of Russian victory from a military analyst specializing in Russian military and a defense economist. That should help with the capacity side of the argument.
Here’s a helpful tip for you. Go back and look at the predictions people made over the past two years, then see how many of those predictions were in line with what actually happened. Then stop listening to people who were consistently wrong about absolutely everything. Perun is a perfect example of somebody who was exposed as a complete and utter fraud. On the other hand, Biran Berletic made consistently accurate predictions about the direction of the war, so if you want to understand what’s happening then I can highly recommend watching his analysis https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos
Here’s him being completely wrong about Russian industrial capacity making an absolutely hilarious claim that the conflict could be over in months or weeks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
These are just a few examples of him being proven completely and utterly wrong. The fact that you think his analysis is spot on shows that you’re living in an invented reality crafted by the propagandists whose content you consume uncritically.
Hmmm? Do you know what game theory is? It explicitly deals with incentive structures and is how academics decode nations motives and goals.
Everybody knows what game theory is, however the discussion is about military capability and strategy which is best left to people who have experience in these things. Also, game theory makes plenty of assumptions which make it of questionable use in the real world. For example, game theory assumes that all actors are rational, and it’s pretty clear that the west has not been making rational decisions throughout this war.
It includes both perceived military capacity and geopolitical strategy. Game theory helps with the latter.
Here’s more info on theories of Russian victory from a military analyst specializing in Russian military and a defense economist. That should help with the capacity side of the argument.
https://youtu.be/7rBlVnc_DEw
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://piped.video/7rBlVnc_DEw
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
Here’s a helpful tip for you. Go back and look at the predictions people made over the past two years, then see how many of those predictions were in line with what actually happened. Then stop listening to people who were consistently wrong about absolutely everything. Perun is a perfect example of somebody who was exposed as a complete and utter fraud. On the other hand, Biran Berletic made consistently accurate predictions about the direction of the war, so if you want to understand what’s happening then I can highly recommend watching his analysis https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/@TheNewAtlas/videos
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
Could you give examples? I’ve found Peruns analysis to be spot on in hindsight.
Or were you taking about Nelson?
Sure, here’s a prime example of him being completely wrong about Russian economy and the effect of sanctions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
Here’s him being completely wrong about Russian industrial capacity making an absolutely hilarious claim that the conflict could be over in months or weeks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
Here’s one where he claims that NATO is not going to run out of weapons for Ukraine, which is now happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw
Here’s him completely misunderstanding the Russian military capability https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs
These are just a few examples of him being proven completely and utterly wrong. The fact that you think his analysis is spot on shows that you’re living in an invented reality crafted by the propagandists whose content you consume uncritically.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.