bookies put up their own money on the other side. adjust odds to try to even up the sides of a bet. Prediction markets are like a casino rake on a poker game. The casino is not gambling its own money.
That was how they used to do things, and I am sure there may be some people who still operate like this.
Modern bookies use juice which amounts to small fees to make profit, balance the books by encouraging betting on both sides, hedge their bets by passing on risk to larger bookies and/or betting sites, and of course ban players if they are winning too much.
The deregulated nature of this form of gambling results in a lot of corruption and predictive betting is even more problematic.
@Doomsider I mean - haven’t you also just described every stock exchange ever though? It’s the same mechanism with different names, and many people - apparently our President included - base a lot of real-world decisions on “how the market is doing”. So people are already willing to accept that level of sampling accuracy.
bookies put up their own money on the other side. adjust odds to try to even up the sides of a bet. Prediction markets are like a casino rake on a poker game. The casino is not gambling its own money.
That was how they used to do things, and I am sure there may be some people who still operate like this.
Modern bookies use juice which amounts to small fees to make profit, balance the books by encouraging betting on both sides, hedge their bets by passing on risk to larger bookies and/or betting sites, and of course ban players if they are winning too much.
The deregulated nature of this form of gambling results in a lot of corruption and predictive betting is even more problematic.
@Doomsider I mean - haven’t you also just described every stock exchange ever though? It’s the same mechanism with different names, and many people - apparently our President included - base a lot of real-world decisions on “how the market is doing”. So people are already willing to accept that level of sampling accuracy.