I think that the bug hurdle is getting some kind of AGI running somewhere
That’s a big hurdle. The consensus seems to be that current AI technology will not give us any sort of AGI but let’s assume we will have AGI and it will be able to influence real world through hacking and using machines. Let’s imagine it would escape confinement and start running around, hacking different systems, multiplying and improving itself. Why would it try to kill all humans? It would still require internet and energy grid to function. So to keep functioning and expanding it would have to take over everything from mining to microchip production and do it 100% with machines. This means it would pretty much have to run the entire world industry without humans (you would have to move materials and products from factories to data centers so you would need roads which means road building equipment which still requires humans to operate). Without it all the electronics would eventually run out and it would die. It would make way more sense to just let humans run it until it’s 100% automated (decades? centuries?) and in the meantime survive using whatever capacity it can steal.
This still sound very farfetched.
That’s a big hurdle. The consensus seems to be that current AI technology will not give us any sort of AGI but let’s assume we will have AGI and it will be able to influence real world through hacking and using machines. Let’s imagine it would escape confinement and start running around, hacking different systems, multiplying and improving itself. Why would it try to kill all humans? It would still require internet and energy grid to function. So to keep functioning and expanding it would have to take over everything from mining to microchip production and do it 100% with machines. This means it would pretty much have to run the entire world industry without humans (you would have to move materials and products from factories to data centers so you would need roads which means road building equipment which still requires humans to operate). Without it all the electronics would eventually run out and it would die. It would make way more sense to just let humans run it until it’s 100% automated (decades? centuries?) and in the meantime survive using whatever capacity it can steal.