I agree Tom’s Hardware is unnecessarily derisive but I also think the performance curve bending to the current date is an exponential difficulty curve. China still has no replacement and no plausible path to a replacement for the most modern EUV nodes that require ASML lithography machines.
They can very very quickly leapfrog older generations of GPU hardware by going straight to the peak of their home-grown lithography processes, that’s not surprising. But getting performance to keep following the curve to the last 2-3 years is a sheer cliff, not a ramp. It took ASML decades to do it and nobody worldwide has replicated it, because it’s just that hard, even as China tries to acquire export-controlled prior-gen machines on the gray market.
Maybe I’ll be wrong, but don’t be surprised if we see no improvement or minor optimizations for years.
My understanding is that Chinese companies have been able to replicate EUV lithography by either using particle accelerators or layering DUV. But the former requires a lot of electricity, and the latter has poor quality and reliability. But with falling electricity prices and fusion reactors around the corner, who knows?
If they got their hands on a machine would they be able to replicate it? If it was such a massive advantage I imagine they would just take one by force, I mean look at how the US just took out two national leaders
It’s unlikely. It’s not just the machine but decades of proprietary knowledge that is not easily exfiltrated out of ASML. The machines they are trying to rebuild from spare parts from the grey market are not even the latest gen. There’s so few of them and they’re only held by companies that can afford to pay the $400 million for a single machine, so it’s not like they’re just falling onto the market without a clear chain of ownership and responsibility.
I mean there is endless capitalism out there - what prevents China from just buying a company that has one? Like if you out up one Trillion dollars on Trumps desk tomorrow they could basically choose which company they want.
I mean, you’re not wrong that this moment is probably China’s best opportunity, since the US administration is corrupt and incompetent. Normally the threat of US and allies’ punishment for violating export controls counts for something. But we’re historically distracted right now and I’m sure China is trying to take advantage.
I agree Tom’s Hardware is unnecessarily derisive but I also think the performance curve bending to the current date is an exponential difficulty curve. China still has no replacement and no plausible path to a replacement for the most modern EUV nodes that require ASML lithography machines.
They can very very quickly leapfrog older generations of GPU hardware by going straight to the peak of their home-grown lithography processes, that’s not surprising. But getting performance to keep following the curve to the last 2-3 years is a sheer cliff, not a ramp. It took ASML decades to do it and nobody worldwide has replicated it, because it’s just that hard, even as China tries to acquire export-controlled prior-gen machines on the gray market.
Maybe I’ll be wrong, but don’t be surprised if we see no improvement or minor optimizations for years.
My understanding is that Chinese companies have been able to replicate EUV lithography by either using particle accelerators or layering DUV. But the former requires a lot of electricity, and the latter has poor quality and reliability. But with falling electricity prices and fusion reactors around the corner, who knows?
If they got their hands on a machine would they be able to replicate it? If it was such a massive advantage I imagine they would just take one by force, I mean look at how the US just took out two national leaders
It’s unlikely. It’s not just the machine but decades of proprietary knowledge that is not easily exfiltrated out of ASML. The machines they are trying to rebuild from spare parts from the grey market are not even the latest gen. There’s so few of them and they’re only held by companies that can afford to pay the $400 million for a single machine, so it’s not like they’re just falling onto the market without a clear chain of ownership and responsibility.
That’s something I don’t understand.
I mean there is endless capitalism out there - what prevents China from just buying a company that has one? Like if you out up one Trillion dollars on Trumps desk tomorrow they could basically choose which company they want.
I mean, you’re not wrong that this moment is probably China’s best opportunity, since the US administration is corrupt and incompetent. Normally the threat of US and allies’ punishment for violating export controls counts for something. But we’re historically distracted right now and I’m sure China is trying to take advantage.